June 2026

Why we ignore the 4% rule

Steve McConnell2026-06-01T23:39:35+00:00

The 4% rule is both one of the most cited numbers in retirement planning and one of the least useful. The rule makes questionable assumptions about investments, spending patterns, future income, future assets, and life expectancy. It turns out, when all factors are considered, the 4% rule isn't even a good first order approximation.

Why we ignore the 4% ruleSteve McConnell2026-06-01T23:39:35+00:00

Sequence of Returns: A Real Risk, a Bad Answer and a Better One

Steve McConnell2026-06-02T00:25:22+00:00

Sequence of returns refers to the risk that an extended down cycle begins at the onset of retirement. The risk that a down cycle will permanently impair your retirement portfolio is real. Conventional wisdom treats this as an asset allocation problem, but the typical response of moving heavily into bonds (or bond funds) as you approach retirement can make the problem worse. A better solution makes targeted use of a specific type of bond fund.

Sequence of Returns: A Real Risk, a Bad Answer and a Better OneSteve McConnell2026-06-02T00:25:22+00:00

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