Bellevue Investment Manager

About Steve McConnell

Managing Member at Rain Dog Financial, Author of Code Complete
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June 2026

Why we ignore the 4% rule

2026-06-01T23:39:35+00:00

The 4% rule is both one of the most cited numbers in retirement planning and one of the least useful. The rule makes questionable assumptions about investments, spending patterns, future income, future assets, and life expectancy. It turns out, when all factors are considered, the 4% rule isn't even a good first order approximation.

Why we ignore the 4% rule2026-06-01T23:39:35+00:00

Sequence of Returns: A Real Risk, a Bad Answer and a Better One

2026-06-02T00:25:22+00:00

Sequence of returns refers to the risk that an extended down cycle begins at the onset of retirement. The risk that a down cycle will permanently impair your retirement portfolio is real. Conventional wisdom treats this as an asset allocation problem, but the typical response of moving heavily into bonds (or bond funds) as you approach retirement can make the problem worse. A better solution makes targeted use of a specific type of bond fund.

Sequence of Returns: A Real Risk, a Bad Answer and a Better One2026-06-02T00:25:22+00:00

Bond Funds are Not Bonds, and Why That Matters

2026-06-02T00:25:57+00:00

Investors building a retirement portfolio assume that bond funds behave like bonds, but most bond funds do not. They lose value when interest rates rise, they don't have maturity dates, and there's no time at which you can cash in the fund for its par value. Most bond funds perform more like low-volatility low-return stock funds than individual bonds. However, there's a relatively new type of bond fund that offers performance similar to actual bonds, and these fill a longstanding gap in retirement investment planning.

Bond Funds are Not Bonds, and Why That Matters2026-06-02T00:25:57+00:00

May 2026

ISO Options, AMT, and the Multi-Year Strategy

2026-06-01T23:32:43+00:00

How many ISOs can you exercise without triggering AMT? That's a good question for one year, but it potentially misses a more important strategy question. Here's how that issue unfolds across a multi-year horizon.

ISO Options, AMT, and the Multi-Year Strategy2026-06-01T23:32:43+00:00

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To design a financial shelter to weather life’s storms,
To give you financial confidence, by design.

If you’re ready to build confidence that’s engineered rather than accidental, we’d love to explore whether Rain Dog is the right partner for your journey.

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330 112th Ave NE
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Bellevue, WA 98004

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